by Cate Eberly

After a warm fall, what will our 2025–2026 winter look like? Winter officially begins in a little over a month on Sunday, December 21, and lasts through Friday, March 20, 2026.

NOAA released its winter prediction from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on October 16 for the upcoming winter months of December 2025 through February 2026.

NOAA considers a variety of factors, the primary ones being La Niña and El Niño, two opposing phases of a natural climate cycle. El Niño is the “warm phase,” when the tropical Pacific is warmer than average and trade winds weaken. La Niña is the “cool phase,” when the Pacific is cooler than average and trade winds strengthen.

NOAA predicts there is a “71% chance that a weak La Niña will develop during December 2025” and influence weather across much of the United States, particularly changing weather in the Upper Mississippi River Valley, and potentially leading to highly variable temperatures and precipitation. La Niña conditions are favored to persist through December 2025 to February 2026.

Historically, since the winter of 2010-11, most winters have been either near normal or among the warmest on record. Following this trend, NOAA predicts “warmer-than-average temperatures are favored for the southern area of the U.S.” More locally, below-average temperatures are expected from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes.

According to NOAA, winter 2025-26 is expected to include “wetter-than-normal” conditions. However, this does not necessarily mean that this winter will end up being snowier than normal. It is even predicted that the southern region of the U.S. is expected to experience drier-than-average conditions.

A local prediction for Ohio from the Cincinnati Enquirer, written by Mariyam Muhammad, predicts similar outcomes for Ohio as NOAA does: “40-50% above average for December, January, and February. Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland are included in that area of higher precipitation,” Muhammad said.

All portions of Ohio including Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton, and Toledo are predicted to have an equal chance of seeing typical seasonal temperatures this winter.